What is the Difference Between Inference and Prediction?

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The main difference between inference and prediction lies in their definitions and applications. Here's a breakdown of the differences:

  • Inference: Inference is the process of reaching a conclusion based on available information, observations, or evidence. It is more concerned with understanding and making sense of what is going on in the world or a specific situation. For example, if you observe wet grass and a cloudy sky, you might infer that it has rained recently.
  • Prediction: Prediction, on the other hand, is an educated guess or forecast about a future event or something that can be explicitly verified within the 'natural' world. It is often based on reasoning, evidence, and background knowledge, but it is directed towards anticipating an outcome or event that has not yet happened. For example, if you see a child with untied shoes running, you might predict that they will trip and fall.

In summary, inference is about understanding the past or present based on available information, while prediction is about making an educated guess about the future based on evidence and reasoning. Both inference and prediction require combining clues, evidence, and background knowledge to form a theory or conclusion.

Comparative Table: Inference vs Prediction

The difference between inference and prediction can be summarized as follows:

Inference Prediction
Inference refers to drawing conclusions based on evidence and reasoning. Prediction involves making a statement about a future event.
Involves understanding the relationship between inputs and outcomes. Estimates the value of the response variable.
Requires the preparation of a model that describes the relationship between variables. Preparing a model is unnecessary.
Certainty of conclusion is higher, as it is evaluated using statistical data and evidence. Certainty of the prediction is lower, as it is an approximation and the future is uncertain.
Inferences can be about the present situation, but they may sometimes be about the future. Predictions are always about the future.

In machine learning, for example, inference focuses on evaluating the relationship between the predictor and response variables, while prediction is the process of using a model to make a prediction about something that is yet to happen.